April 6, 2020

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WTVF) — New projections for Tennessee predict a significant flattening of the curve of COVID-19 cases expected in the coming weeks.

Among the new factors included in the latest version: the potential impact of Gov. Bill Lee’s stay-at-home order.

Rather than facing a critical shortage of hospital beds and ventilators, the new model suggests that the Volunteer State will easily be able to meet the expected demand at the peak of the surge in mid-April.

“This is the most impactful moment of our last couple of weeks in this battle because we see, if we act decisively to mitigate the virus, we are going to make a huge impact on the future of our state,” said Dr. Aaron Milstone, the Franklin pulmonologist who led the push for a statewide mandate.

The data, which the Lee administration has relied upon for weeks, comes from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.

Last week, Lee announced that convention centers and other facilities across Tennessee would be converted into makeshift hospitals based on projections that the state would face a shortage of about 7,000 hospital beds at the peak of the surge.

But the latest IHME model predicts a demand for only 1,232 hospital beds on April 15 as a result of the stay-at-home order, well below the 7,812 beds currently available.

The state will need 245 Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds at peak, with 629 currently available, the projections show.

The IHME model also predicts a need for 208 ventilators, well below the Tennessee Department of Health’s count of 800-900 available devices.